Figure AI

What it captures

Broad exposure to public robotics and AI companies including component suppliers (NVIDIA, Sony, Keyence), industrial automation firms (FANUC, ABB), and manufacturing customers (Toyota) that overlap Figure AI's supply chain and customer base.

What it misses

No direct exposure to Figure AI as a private company; relies entirely on public-market proxies in robotics hardware, AI chips, and industrial automation that may not correlate with humanoid robotics specifically.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if GPU supply constraints ease (lowering Figure's input costs) or if BMW and automotive manufacturers increase industrial automation capex — drivers that would expand demand for both traditional robotics and humanoid platforms.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if humanoid robotics cannibalizes traditional industrial automation spending, reducing revenue for legacy robotics firms that dominate the fund's holdings.

Materiality: medium · Confidence: medium · Long term (3+ years)

Expense ratio 0.68% Holding weights are shown only when published by the issuer — the exposure may be material or incidental; check the fund’s current holdings.

What it captures

World's largest lithium producer with 20%+ global market share; pricing power and production volumes directly shape battery-grade lithium costs for Figure's suppliers.

What it misses

ALB revenue mix includes bromine specialties and catalysts; lithium represents ~60% of earnings, so exposure is diluted by non-battery businesses.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if lithium oversupply and ALB production cuts drive lithium prices lower—the same dynamic that reduces Figure's battery input costs.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if tight lithium supply drives ALB's pricing and margins higher—the same condition that inflates Figure's battery pack costs and erodes robot unit economics.

Materiality: medium · Confidence: medium · Medium term (1–3 years)

What it captures

Direct exposure to lithium hydroxide pricing which drives battery pack costs—a high-materiality input for Figure's multi-hour operation requirement.

What it misses

Does not capture battery assembly costs, competing battery chemistries, or Figure's potential volume purchasing agreements that may lock pricing.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if lithium prices decline—the same driver that would reduce Figure's battery input costs and improve unit economics.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if lithium prices surge due to EV demand or supply constraints—the same driver that would compress Figure's manufacturing margins unless passed through to customers.

Materiality: high · Confidence: medium · Medium term (1–3 years)

What it captures

Second-largest lithium producer globally with low-cost Chilean brine operations; SQM's production volumes and pricing strategies materially influence battery-grade lithium carbonate costs.

What it misses

SQM also produces fertilizers and iodine (~40% of revenue); lithium segment performance is diluted by agricultural commodity exposure and Chilean regulatory/political risk.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if SQM's lithium production ramp and inventory accumulation drive oversupply and lower lithium prices—the same dynamic that reduces Figure's battery input costs.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if Chilean regulatory constraints or SQM production cuts tighten lithium supply and elevate pricing—the same condition that raises Figure's battery pack costs.

Materiality: medium · Confidence: low · Medium term (1–3 years)

What it captures

Passive exposure to global robotics and AI index including semiconductor suppliers (NVIDIA, Qualcomm), industrial automation (Rockwell, Siemens), and Japanese robotics manufacturers (FANUC, Yaskawa) that supply components and compete in adjacent automation markets.

What it misses

Index methodology favors large-cap industrial automation incumbents over private humanoid robotics startups; no direct Figure AI exposure and limited weight to emerging bipedal robotics ecosystem.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if industrial capex expands broadly due to labor shortages (the same driver increasing demand for Figure's humanoid labor substitutes) or if GPU prices normalize, reducing AI system costs across robotics and accelerating adoption.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if humanoid robotics proves superior to traditional fixed automation in manufacturing, causing share losses for incumbent robotics firms that dominate index weight.

Materiality: medium · Confidence: medium · Long term (3+ years)

Expense ratio 0.47% Holding weights are shown only when published by the issuer — the exposure may be material or incidental; check the fund’s current holdings.

What it captures

Direct exposure to copper pricing affecting electric motor windings, actuator components, power distribution wiring, and battery interconnects—material cost inputs across 20+ actuators per robot.

What it misses

Does not capture specialty alloy surcharges, fabrication costs, or copper content substitution strategies in actuator design.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if copper prices decline due to China demand weakness or new mine supply—the same driver that lowers actuator and wiring costs for Figure's robot production.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if copper prices spike above $5/lb due to supply disruptions or energy transition demand—the same factor that inflates electric motor and actuator input costs for Figure.

Materiality: medium · Confidence: medium · Short term (0–12 months)

What it captures

World's largest publicly traded copper producer; FCX's mine output and cost structure directly influence industrial copper pricing that feeds into actuator and electrical component costs.

What it misses

FCX also produces gold and molybdenum; copper represents ~75% of revenue, so exposure is somewhat diluted by precious metals and FCX's oil/gas legacy assets.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if FCX production ramps and copper oversupply drives prices lower—the same condition that reduces wiring and motor component costs for Figure's robot assembly.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if FCX mine disruptions or cost inflation tighten copper supply and elevate prices—the same driver that raises actuator and electrical system input costs for Figure.

Materiality: low · Confidence: low · Medium term (1–3 years)

What it captures

Active thematic exposure to autonomous systems, aerospace, and next-generation robotics including electric vehicle suppliers, drone manufacturers, and AI companies (Tesla, Iridium, Kratos) that share enabling technologies with humanoid robotics.

What it misses

No direct Figure AI holdings; active management focused on publicly traded disruptive technology firms with unpredictable overlap to private humanoid robotics sector.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if lithium-ion battery costs decline sharply (the same driver lowering Figure's robot power system costs) or if foundation AI models become commoditized, reducing barriers to entry for autonomous systems broadly.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if humanoid robotics development consumes venture capital and talent at the expense of electric vehicle and aerospace sectors where ARKQ is heavily positioned.

Materiality: low · Confidence: low · Long term (3+ years)

Expense ratio 0.75% Holding weights are shown only when published by the issuer — the exposure may be material or incidental; check the fund’s current holdings.

What it captures

Diversified investment-grade corporate credit exposure including industrial automation equipment makers, semiconductor firms, and manufacturing customers that overlap Figure AI's upstream suppliers and downstream buyers.

What it misses

Broad sector exposure dilutes concentration to any single Figure counterparty; no direct Figure AI credit exposure; equity upside absent.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if industrial manufacturing activity remains strong and corporate credit spreads tighten — the same macro environment that supports demand for automation technology and humanoid robot deployments.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if manufacturing recession causes industrial credit deterioration — the same environment that would reduce capital spending on automation and Figure's commercial pipeline.

Materiality: low · Confidence: low · Medium term (1–3 years)

Expense ratio 0.14% Holding weights are shown only when published by the issuer — the exposure may be material or incidental; check the fund’s current holdings.

What it captures

Diversified floating-rate investment-grade credit including industrial and technology issuers that overlap Figure's supplier base and customer sectors, with rate protection during tightening cycles.

What it misses

Broad diversification dilutes any single counterparty exposure; floating-rate structure reduces duration but eliminates long-term rate sensitivity; no Figure equity upside.

Why the price could rise

May benefit if industrial credit quality remains stable and short-term rates stay elevated — macro conditions that support corporate spending on capital equipment including automation.

Why the price could fall

May be harmed if manufacturing recession causes widespread industrial credit deterioration — the same environment that would reduce capital spending on humanoid robots.

Materiality: low · Confidence: low · Short term (0–12 months)

Expense ratio 0.14% Holding weights are shown only when published by the issuer — the exposure may be material or incidental; check the fund’s current holdings.